[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
29W/30W FROM 1N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND ITS POSITION IS
MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WESTWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE MASS ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAMS...BUT THE SIGNAL IS NOT CLEAR CUT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-30W...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTINCT UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N25W 4N32W 1N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-8N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE GULF WATERS BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS BETWEEN 84W-93W. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SE THROUGH ERN
TEXAS. SFC SUPPORT IS GENERALLY LIMITED THOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONFLUENCE STILL EXISTS...WITH 15-20 KT E/SE FLOW IN THE ERN
GULF AROUND HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MUCH LIGHTER/MORE
VARIABLE FLOW IN THE WRN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE GULF OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER ERN TEXAS DRIFTS SLOWLY E/SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N81W 12N80W. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 15N81W WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AROUND RIDGING IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
SIMILAR ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW JUST S OF BERMUDA.
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WED. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY HIGH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH REMNANT TROUGHING FROM THE ATLC
DEEP LAYER LOW AFFECTING THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THIS
EVENING...BEHIND THE DEEP LAYER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
AREA. ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SFC LOW IS NEAR 30N64W IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ENE FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TRAILING
SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH 25N63W 21N67W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE DEEP LAYER LOW AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 53W-66W.
A 1028 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 32N35W DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. THIS
HAS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA E OF 50W. LESS LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT E OF 25W
WHERE A FAIRLY DENSE AREA OF DUST IS EVIDENT AS DEPICTED BY THE
UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS.


$$
WILLIS




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