[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
27W/28W FROM 1N TO 9N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN 1N-7N AND 25W-35W...WITH THE
MOST ACTIVITY LOCATED W OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN
PLACED ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS CONVECTION...WITH MODEST E TO
SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE PLACEMENT IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SOLE SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA...LOCATED NEAR
7N29W...REPORTING NE WINDS AT 10 KT AHEAD OF THE AXIS.


...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 4N27W 3N30W 1N40W AND
INTO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM EQ-3N E OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 3N-5N AND
4W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 44W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-91W THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SE THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE NW GULF. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DRIFT ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
A STABLE 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN  MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS IN THE
EASTERN GULF. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N80W TO A
WEAK SFC LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
EXIST ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
E-W ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 12N73W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS  BETWEEN 14N AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST BETWEEN
73W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...NW PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE DEEP
LAYERED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN ATLC.
TYPICAL ELY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WEAK LOW
PRES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST NEAR 33N77W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC. FURTHER EAST...A 1012 MB DEEP LAYER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
29N65W. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG
25N67W 23N68W TO JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS THAT EXTENDS 200 NM
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 23N. A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO THE AREA EAST OF 50W. SAHARAN DUST
EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 30W BETWEEN 7N-18N.


$$
WADDINGTON




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