[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
26W/27W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
25W-34W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 4N30W 2N40W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W...AND FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 35W-45W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-8N
BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW.  THE GRADIENT IS LEAST OVER
THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED.  AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 88W-92W MOVING
E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 88W-90W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W DRIFTING E.  DIFFLUENCE FORM THIS UPPER LOW HELPED
PRODUCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.  UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE ERN GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 84W.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF...AS WELL AS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM W OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N80W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W.  FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO VENEZUELA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ALSO INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 85W-87W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-65W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 78W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N64W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 70W.  A COL IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N75W.  FURTHER E...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N65W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PUERTO
RICO AT 20N67W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 58W-64W.  THE E ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS AT 34N48W...AND 35N22W.
THEY ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N
OF 10N E OF 55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 29N67W.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N19W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W 10N48W.  IN THE
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W.  EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND TROUGH MOVES E WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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