[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
24W/25W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  THE WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 14W-17W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
41W-43W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW.  THE GRADIENT IS LEAST OVER
THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED.  A
LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 89W-94W MOVING E.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 87W-90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N94W DRIFTING E.  DIFFLUENCE FORM
THIS UPPER LOW HELPED PRODUCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO DRIFT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N79W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM W OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 72W-75W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 84W-88W.  SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND MOVING IN FROM THE S.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ISLAND FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 63W-69W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS W OF 80W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N64W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W.  A
COL IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN W
OF 70W...AND N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 34N72W.  FURTHER E...A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N65W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR PUERTO
RICO ALONG 24N64W 20N67W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 60W-64W.  THE E ATLANTIC IS
DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS AT 34N48W...AND 34N28W.
THEY ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER N
OF 10N E OF 55W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 28N68W.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 26N19W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W 10N48W.  IN THE
TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 11N24W.  EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND TROUGH MOVES E WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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