[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC ALONG
22W/23W FROM 2N TO 8N...MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS
WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. BUOY 31006 NEAR 4N23W REPORTED SE
WINDS 10 KT AT 2100 UTC...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF THIS IS
BECAUSE THE WAVE PASSED...OR JUST A BYPRODUCT OF THE NORMAL
BACKGROUND FLOW SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN
24W-30W. HAVE AGAIN PLACED THE WAVE ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THIS
CONVECTION...WITH MODEST UPPER E TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA SW OF
AN ANTICYCLONE OVER MALI.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 5N27W 2N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 2N-5N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS S OF 10N W OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER IN THE GULF TONIGHT IS IN THE NW PORTION...OFF
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS. LIGHTNING
DATA...RADAR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 88W-95W. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SE THROUGH TEXAS INTO THE WRN GULF. THE SFC SUPPORT IS
LIMITED...ALTHOUGH SPEED CONFLUENCE IS NOTED IN THIS VICINITY
WITH 15 TO 20 KT E/SE WINDS IN THE ERN GULF BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE IN THE FAR WRN PORTION. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH IS ALONG 26N93W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N90W. HIGH PRES
WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS IN THE
ERN GULF...THAT GRADUALLY RELAX IN THE WRN PORTION AROUND THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH IN THE
WRN GULF AND RIDGING OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A SFC TROUGH
REMAINS BETWEEN ERN CUBA AND PANAMA ALONG 20N78W 11N79W. A WEAK
LOW MAY BE READDED ALONG THIS TROUGH AT 0000 UTC WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR 14N79W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
74W-78W...THOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING ERN
HISPANIOLA...NW PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE
VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IN THE WRN
ATLC. TYPICAL ELY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK EXCEPT THE SW PART WHERE WEAK LOW
PRES WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI STATIONARY 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS OFF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N73W. THIS IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. A LARGER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR
33N36W. THIS IS PRODUCING SIMILAR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF
50W. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS IS SUPPORTING
THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATCL ALONG 33N62W 25N66W 20N72W. A
1014 MB SFC LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 27N66W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPRTED BY A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LOW
NEAR 28N69W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGHING HAS A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-67W. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO 1010 MB AND MOVE NNE TO NEAR 30N64W
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

$$
WILLIS


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