[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 21W FROM 3N TO 10N AND IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15
KNOTS. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS IDENTITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N14W 3N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A 2.5N8W 7N17W LINE AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A 5N27W 5.5N36W LINE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A 6N50W 9.5N62W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN...
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THIS AREA AND CONTINUES INTO
THE PACIFIC WATERS EAST OF 100W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE
OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE ARE LOCATED OVER THE UPPER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA
COASTS AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE 60 TO 90 NAUTICAL MILES. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR
23N90W INTO GUATEMALA...MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

REMAINDER CARIBBEAN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS
FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF 27.5N69.5W...MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 18N76W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
LOCATED WITHIN 6 TO 8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND
82W. AT THE SURFACE A 1015 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 27N64W AND
IS MOVING NORTH ABOUT 10 KNOTS. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO
21N68W AND NORTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 32N63W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE BOUNDED BY THE AREA
FROM 32N67W 31N55W 21N60W 22N68W TO 32N67W. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR 12N68W TO 22N62W TO
32N52W. AT THE SURFACE A CARIBBEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N78W TO
A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N79W. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO 13N75W.

REMAINDER ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 32N15W TO
18N40W TO 12N55W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 10N47W TO 20N26W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST AT 25N. A SEPARATE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 41W NORTH OF 28N. A RIDGE ALOFT IS
LOCATED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 9N/10N EAST OF
40W.

$$
CAB



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