[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N11W 5N20W 5N30W 6N42W TO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 15W AND 36W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W...FROM
6N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
49W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
40W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH REACHES
NEAR 25N118W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND EVEN TEXAS SOUTH OF 29N
EAST OF 100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRETTY MUCH STOPS IN THE GULF
WATERS AROUND 94W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 33N76W AND IT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 27N74W TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 26N79W BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N79W TO 23N81W NEAR CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N79W 30N75W 32N71W WITH A 19/1500 UTC SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N72W...TO 21N74W
NEAR CUBA...TO 18N78W JUST OFF SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N72W...TO 21N74W
NEAR CUBA...TO 18N78W JUST OFF SOUTHWESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 17N TO CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG
81W/82W FROM 10N TO 18N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
29N49W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 35N54W 29N49W 20N43W. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON
TOP OF THIS 29N49W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 28W AND
60W. A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N56W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 29N54W AND 22N57W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 32N14W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W TO 24N25W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
29N11W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 28N24W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 26W AND 52W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

$$
MT



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