[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
605 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
7N11W 4N25W 6N42W 5N52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 21W TO 27W AND
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 45W.  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W ARE UNDER THE BASE
OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED JET CORE 95 KT ROUNDING
BASE TIP NEAR STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND HEADING NE SUPPORTING WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS ALONG 103W ADVECTING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE SOON TO ARRIVE GULF OF MEXICO.  MEANWHILE GULF
OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PANAMA CANAL ALONG
79W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA INTO BAHAMAS.  STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W...FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.  BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS AREA MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N57W TO 29N55W
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM W AND 60 NM E OF TROUGH.  MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 28N48W.  LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST N OF CYCLONIC VORTEX PROVIDES
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA NORTH OF CYCLONIC VORTEX.  MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N14W CYCLONIC VORTEX TO CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N18W TO 24N25W.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO INTO
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 29N11W...ACROSS CANARY ISLANDS...TO 28N24W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
26W AND 52W.

$$
WALLY BARNES

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