[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 9N10W 4N20W 6N44W 4N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 40W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E US AND THE GULF GIVING THE
ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FT LAUDERDALE WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 23N89W.
THIS REMAINS A WEAK FRONT AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND NO
EVIDENCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SE US BEHIND THE FRONT WITH N TO NE WINDS BRIDGING
THE FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE
GULF FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND
MOVE INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N82W S TO 1009 MB LOW OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. THESES FEATURES COUPLED WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 18N FROM 79W-84W AND S OF 11N FROM
73W-79W. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THAT AREA THIS MORNING.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W
TO THE 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FT
LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W INCLUDING THE N
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N.
WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR
20N74W TO BEYOND 32N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 78W.
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N66W TO BEYOND 32N65W. UPPER LOW
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N49W IS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING ELONGATED SE/NW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION...A 1020
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO 24N58W. THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND ARE
NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE
ATLC EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO THROUGH 32N12W ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N32W COVERING THE AREA N OF 21N. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N/7N TO
53W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
E TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR NO SHOWERS ARE
FORMING. ANOTHER PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS MOVING INTO THE ATLC S
OF 18N TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
IN THE REGION OF THE SURFACE LOW.

$$
WALLACE



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