[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190442
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N8W 4N20W 7N42W 5N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO 7N BETWEEN
17W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF 12W ACROSS THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E US HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF WESTERLY WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 24N90W. THIS REMAINS A
WEAK FRONT AND WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD BE GENERATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NE WINDS
BRIDGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTROL THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N82W ALONG 16N82W TO 11N79W. THE ITCZ IN
THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA
COUPLED WITH THE 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N80W
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S
OF 11N W OF 80W. ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN...DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THAT AREA TONIGHT.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 67W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W
TO THE 1012 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W FROM MIAMI
TO DAYTONA BEACH. A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO BEYOND 32N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA S OF THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 74W-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N66W TO BEYOND 32N67W.
UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 40W-58W
CENTERED NEAR 29N48W AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION 1020 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE
LOW TO 21N55W. THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR AND
ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE
ATLC EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N10W ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 26N31W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E/W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N/7N TO
55W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
E TROPICAL ATLC...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DRY AIR NO SHOWERS ARE
FORMING. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 70W
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IN THE REGION OF THE SURFACE
LOW.

$$
WALLACE




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