[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N8W  6N34W 5N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 15W-22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM O F AXIS FROM 24W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ALONG 26N81W 23N90W DRIFTING SE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT W OF 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER WRN GULF FROM 23N-28N W OF 93W. WEAK NE WINDS THROUGHOUT
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER N OF FRONT E OF 93W.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...QUASI ZONAL FLOW COVER ENTIRE
GULF WITH 80 KT JET CORE OVER WEAK COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW PRES 1007 MB LOW JUST N OF PANAMA AT 10N80W WITH SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 20N79W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N FROM 76W-84W.  ELY
TRADES E OF 80W AND NELY WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN W OF TROUGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER WRN ATLC HAS TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 10N57W WITH NWLY FLOW COVERING ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND WRN CARIBBEAN W OF
75W WHILE REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SW N ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES MIGHT BE DEVELOPING
NEXT 6-12 HRS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF FRONT.  LOW
PRES 1008 MB ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT IS N OF AREA WITH GALE
WARNING N OF 32N.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM LOW PRES TO E
CUBA NEAR 22N77W.  AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF
TROUGH AXIS TO 63W N OF 23N.  WEAK 1020 MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 29N52W WILL DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HRS.  SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM LOW PRES TO 22N52W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH.  HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES E ATLANTIC
N OF 15N AND E OF 45W.  AFRICAN DUST OVER E ATLC S OF 20N AND E
OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER W ATLC ASSOCIATED TO
COLD FRONT N OF 26N FROM 72W-80W.  RIDGE N OF 20N FROM 50W-72W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL ATLC AT 28N47W AND SECOND ONE
OVER CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N19W.

$$
WALLY BARNES



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