[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N15W 3N22W 4N36W 3N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 9W-13W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 37W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-24WE AND
WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FORM 45W-52W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS
BRINGING DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER SE LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
AND 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE W GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND HAVE
BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WITH REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF
84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SMOKE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE
GULF FOR THE PAST WEEK IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE N GULF AND HAS CLEARED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THANKS TO THE
COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED S ALONG THE E COAST BRINGING EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND RAIN. THE SMOKE MAY AGAIN BECOME A PROBLEM AS
THE FIRES CAUSING IT HAVE NOT BEEN EXTINGUISHED AND MORE FIRES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE US. WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N
GULF WED INTO THE THU GIVING THE AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW
ALONG 17N81W TO THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N82 GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
76W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 55W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N56W ALONG
27N68W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND
FORT PIERCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W ALONG 24N61W
TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND S OF
THE FRONT TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE US INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W ALONG 21N49W TO BEYOND 32N43W. THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY
AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE
ITCZ ACROSS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FURTHER LIMITING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE



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