[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N40W 3N51W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 20W FROM 2N-5N. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER SW AFRICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 6W-11W. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM SHOWS THE WESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE AREA OVER AFRICA DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF BRAZIL WEST OF 40W AS WELL AS OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21Z...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N94W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 5-10 KT WINDS AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS AND VIS SAT IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT SMOKE IS STILL COVERING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE
FAVORED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...INCLUDING ALSO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER E TEXAS IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS AND SE
LOUISIANA. WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BUILDS IN GIVING THE AREA A MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WIND FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY N FROM THE LOW
TOWARDS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS/CENTRAL CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA WHERE SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. NLY WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TOMORROW AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...AN E/W RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA/CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC WITH AXIS ALONG 10N.
WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW TO FORM
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WED...THEN
MOVES IT N ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ON THU. WILL WAIT FOR LATER MODEL
RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY DETERMINATION AS TO WHETHER THIS SCENARIO
OCCURS.

ATLANTIC...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N60W
THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WWD ENTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
TITUSVILLE. A NARROW BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND ALSO EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N65W
23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 29N58W 25N60W.  AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/ISOLATED IS MOSTLY E OF
THE TROUGH FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 50W-58W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO THE 14/1800
UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALL THE WAY E TO AFRICA WITH AN
SECONDARY THICKER PLUME OF DUST S OF 15N AND E OF 42W MOVING W.
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE AREA. A BROAD
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 30W-45W. WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
GR



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