[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 5N40W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE N GULF INTO THE W
ATLC IS BRINGING DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE
US INTO THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N E OF 84W INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF TAMPA. THIN LAYER OF SMOKE REMAINS OVER THE NW
GULF. WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF WED INTO THE THU
GIVING THE AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW
ALONG 14N81W TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N W OF 75W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE WITH AFRICAN DUST E OF
64W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 53W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N53W ALONG
27N64W BECOMING ALMOST STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FT LAUDERDALE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W
ALONG 24N61W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA W OF 73W...S OF 22N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-71W...E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N55W TO BEYOND 32N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE
US INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 45W WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N45W. THE E ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY AIR
COVERING THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FURTHER
SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE






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