[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE
CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 73W-76W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 69W-73W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UN-ORGANIZED AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE AND CONTINUES TO AWAY FROM THE SE
US.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N16W 2N36W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
1W-5W WITH A LARGER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION JUST E OF THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 10W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W COVERING THE
ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N89W TO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN
82W-88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A
1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE
FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM
NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-80W ACROSS JAMAICA AND
CUBA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 22N80W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 14N83W
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY
WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
REMNANTS OF ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SE US
COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND
DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS
THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT
SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF A LINE FROM
ANDROS TO ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N60W ALONG 22N50W TO BEYOND
32N42W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM
21N62W TO 32N64W INCLUDING BERMUDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN 68W-78W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W SW TO 15N37W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC
ESPECIALLY E OF 60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA
DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W WITH THE
DENSEST PORTION S OF 13N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE






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