[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENE OF THE
CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 30N75W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AND A
CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SE US IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 2N30W 1N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 5N20W AND
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
25N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY
IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN
SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS
INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS MUCH OF THE N GULF FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE TO ALL OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-81W ACROSS JAMAICA AND
CUBA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 20N82W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 14N83W
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA
REMAINS DRY WITH SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND DIPS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY
CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT
SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF ANDROS TO
ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W ALONG 22N47W TO BEYOND 32N40W
PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING A BROAD SWATH
OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
24N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W-78W AND WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM 21N63W TO 32N66W INCLUDING BERMUDA. WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW TO 15N37W.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W. DRY AIR COVERS
MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF 60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE



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