[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1007 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST AT 12/2100 UTC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRESENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N
BETWEEN 75W-77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 1N20W 1N40W 2N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-13W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N94W.  FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE HIGH.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF ALONG 25N86W 20N90W 16N91W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 84W-87W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA MOVING E.  THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W
...AND ALL OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE SMOKE WITH VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN FOUR MILES DUE TO FIRES IN FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA.
OF NOTE...A THICK PLUME OF SMOKE IS SEEN OVER S FLORIDA
EXTENDING E TO THE BAHAMAS FROM 75W-85W MOVING E.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
30N85W.  CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF N OF 22N.  BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 80W-90W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT LIGHT NLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE W ATLANTIC
LEAVING THE GULF WITH WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 10-20 KT ELY WINDS.
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY
INLAND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 76W-85W DUE PRIMARILY TO THE ITCZ THAT RUNS ALONG 8N.
FURTHER N... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 73W-78W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 12N.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM E CUBA S
TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA.

ATLANTIC...
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE
REMNANTS OF ANDREA.  A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N35W.  AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC S
OF 20N AND E OF 40W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 66W-69W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N27W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF
20W TO AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA




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