[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N35W 2N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
8W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N
BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF NEAR 27N88W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH COVERING
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS
OF 70 TO 90 KT IS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM
NE MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO W-CENTRAL CUBA. THIS
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE E GULF. SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES IN SE
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.
VIS SAT IMAGERY AND NESDIS SMOKE DETECTION PAGE SHOW A DENSE
PLUME OF SMOKE COVERING THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STATIONS ALONG THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH
CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE OR SMOKE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THESE CONDITIONS ALSO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE NW BAHAMA
ISLANDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE GULF THROUGH MON...WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SWLY FLOW
COVERS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER NE VENEZUELA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS E CUBA/JAMAICA ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST MAINLY ON
THE EPAC SIDE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AND THE
PRESENCE OF A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N76W. OTHERWISE THE
AREA REMAINS DRY WITH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KT E OF 80W. FRESH ELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC...
A 1005 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH
IS BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA WHILE A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO BEYOND 32N45W. IN
BETWEEN THESE UPPER HIGHS...THERE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N73W...THEN CONTINUES SW AND W TO THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
TRIGGERING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 25N71W AND
31N69W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR 32N57W WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 24N36W THAT HAS
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 14N...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N35W.

$$
GR






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