[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N19W 1N35W 3N52W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
BETWEEN 4W-9W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N90W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GULF TO NEAR 23N82W COVERING
THE ENTIRE GULF AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO THE N GULF COAST
BETWEEN 85W-94W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF
WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE GULF TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS
BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA. STATIONS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA S OF WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUE TO REPORT HAZE OR
SMOKE AND IT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER S FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE S PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THESE CONDITIONS
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO W ATLC AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W TROPICAL/CENTRAL ATLC. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N81W TO OVER CUBA NEAR
21N78W GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM HISPANIOLA
TO E CUBA INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE
THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
A 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
FLORIDA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF
70W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W ALONG
22N55W TO BEYOND 32N47W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND
GENERATING A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N64W TO
26N75W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS ENTERED NEAR 31N60W WITH AN AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N32N BETWEEN 52W-66W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N35W COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N
FROM 27W-45W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS
NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH THE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net