[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE
CENTER FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 69W-75W AND HAS BECOME LESS WELL
ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ENE AND CONTINUES TO
AWAY FROM THE SE US.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 6N15W 2N35W 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
0W-4W WITH A LARGER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION JUST E OF THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE N GULF NEAR WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS LOUISIANAN BORDER. THIS UPPER
SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
IS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR 28N95.5W 1019 MB. THE BIGGEST
CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE
FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM
NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM THE
CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC INCLUDING ALL OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS
DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE
VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 12N. DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM 75W-80W ACROSS JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY.

ATLANTIC...
REMNANTS OF ANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SE US
COAST...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND
DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS
THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT
SMOKE NOW COVERS A PORTION OF THE N BAHAMAS N OF A LINE FROM
ANDROS TO ELEUTHERA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N60W ALONG 22N50W TO BEYOND
32N42W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 21N61W TO 31N55W. ALSO WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM
21N76W TO 32N58W. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N18W SW TO 18N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC E OF 65W. DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC ESPECIALLY E OF
60W AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
ITCZ TO 20N E OF 50W WITH THE DENSEST PORTION S OF 13N...THUS
LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
LL


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