[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030451
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N19W 3N32W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 8N W OF 8W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 22W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 120
NM OF 4N FROM 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND IS MOVING NE OVER MISSOURI. A SECOND
EQUALLY STRONG AS THE FIRST WAS IS NOW MOVING INTO NW TEXAS
AGAIN GENERATING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE W GULF
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO JUST INTO NE
MEXICO. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 28N89W AND IS DRAWING THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS
INTO THE NW GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE E GULF IS
MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR TAMPA BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO FLORIDA. THE DRY AIR IS
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
TO CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. THE
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N FROM HAITI NEAR 72W TO
OVER CUBA NEAR 80W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...
DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N72W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N76W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 68W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 67W-77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
25N FROM 40W-60W BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SSW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N31W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING
THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE




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