[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 4N33W EQ41N TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.  A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 4W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W.  THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
WITH 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW PRIMARILY FROM THE SE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NEW
MEXICO NEAR 33N106W MOVING E.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER INLAND
TEXAS FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 97W-101W MOVING E TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY HAS NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER TEXAS TO BRUSH THE NW GULF AND MOVE
TO LOUISIANA BY 24 HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA.  NEXRAD RADAR OVER PUERTO
RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-69W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.  ELSEWHERE... THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N PRODUCING
CLUTTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
70W-85W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E VENEZUELA
NEAR 5N62W.  MOST OF THE SEA HAS SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A BAND
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 72W-86W.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N73W
27N73W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...THE SRN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
68W-80W.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO A 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 27N72W IN 48 HOURS.  ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 25N80W 30N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W.  THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 15W-65W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  WLY FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
OCEAN.

$$
FORMOSA




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