[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N21W 4N44W 3N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF W AFRICA FROM THE AXIS TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE AXIS FROM 16W-52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE COAST OF SW
AFRICA TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER N TEXAS GENERATING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 93W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN W GULF N
OF 22N W OF 95W. THE W GULF IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W AND IS DRAWING THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TEXAS INTO THE W GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE E GULF MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH STILL NO ASSOCIATED
SURFACE REFLECTION. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS
TO FLORIDA. THE DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN
TO CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 78W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. THE
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N FROM HAITI NEAR 72W TO
OVER CUBA NEAR 81W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER COSTA RICA.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 28N73W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N77W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 68W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
BETWEEN 67W-78W WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N TO THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 22N FROM 35W-60W BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING
THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE



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