[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N35W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF
THE GULF TONIGHT. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IN TURN ARE GENERATING SMALL TO MODERATE
WIND WAVES...GETTING LARGER FURTHER W WHERE MORE FETCH IS
AVAILABLE. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FRI AND SAT ALLOWING SE
WINDS TO INCREASE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
GULF WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER
THE GULF. DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE BASIN ASIDE FROM BANDS OF
UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS OVER THE NW AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 19N63W
17N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIB AS
SHOWN VIA THE SAN JUAN RADAR. THIS HAS LED TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
TRADE FLOW FOR THE NE PORTION...MAINLY E OF 70W...WHILE MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A BIT STRONGER TRADES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR DETAILS. BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E TO NE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N55W AND CONTINUES WSW TO
NEAR 29N70W THEN WNW TO THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH N TO NE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
BOUNDARY AND ONLY RAGGED REMNANTS OF A ROPE SIGNATURE. THIS
FRONT IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMALL AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 60W-64W. STRONG HI PRES
STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL BREAK THROUGH THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
STRONG N/NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 60W TODAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. AS OF 30/0000
UTC THE TROUGH WAS ALONG 29N50W 21N56W AND CONTINUES INTO THE
CARIB TO 17N67W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR
19N61W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO
NEAR 28N47W BY 31/0000 UTC. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC
SUPPORT...UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 38W IS SUPPORTING THE DEEP LAYER
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISLD TSTMS N OF 21N
BETWEEN 43W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB HI PRES AREA E OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N19W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TO FRESH NE/E WINDS E OF 35W.

$$
WILLIS


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