[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300008
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W.  RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  NO CONVECTION OR
SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF.  A MASSIVE AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS INLAND OVER NE TEXAS N OF 31N TO NEBRASKA.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W.  A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS
OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N AND
E OF 95W MOVING E.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY OVER THE GULF FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 66W-69W DRIFTING NE.  A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 16N67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16N AND E OF
67W.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.  A BAND
OF MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF 83W AND N OF 12N.  SIMILAR MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE OVER S
AMERICA AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND S OF 16N.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 83W.  EXPECT THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DRIFT E INTO THE
ATLANTIC.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED S OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W
29N70W 32N80W MOVING SE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N50W TO
THE 1010 MB LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 44W-55W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N18W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
25N45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N
OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
10W-50W.   EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC.

$$
FORMOSA


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