[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N35W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 22W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE GULF
THIS MORNING. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS
THE BASIN. THE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 3-5' E/SE
WIND WAVES/SWELL WITH A BIT LARGER SEAS IN THE WRN GULF W OF 92W
WHERE MORE FETCH IS AVAILABLE...AND ALSO IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AGAINST THE OPPOSING CURRENT. HI PRES WILL SLIDE SE OFF
THE CAROLINAS INTO SAT ALLOWING SE WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS AT A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF WHILE TSTMS
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NATIONS MIDSECTION AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. DRY/STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE BASIN ASIDE FROM BANDS OF UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS N
OF 27N W OF 87W AND NEAR THE YUCATAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 18N62W
17N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIB AS
SHOWN VIA THE SAN JUAN RADAR. THIS HAS LED TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
TRADE FLOW FOR THE NE PORTION...MAINLY E OF 70W...WHILE MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A BIT STRONGER TRADES
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR DETAILS. BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E TO NE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N52W AND CONTINUES WSW TO
NEAR 27N70W THEN WNW TO THE FAR N FL COAST AS A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A RAGGED ROPE CLOUD BUT SFC
WINDS SUGGEST THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS BRIDGING THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMALL
AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. HIGH
PRES PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
STRONG N/NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 55W TODAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N49W 20N57W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIB TO 17N67W. A
1007 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 23N53W...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR 30N45W BY
31/0600 UTC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SE
PORTION OF THIS LOW BY LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC
SUPPORT...UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 38W IS SUPPORTING THE DEEP LAYER
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISLD TSTMS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 41W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB HI PRES AREA E OF THE AZORES NEAR
36N19W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE
TO FRESH NE/E WINDS E OF 35W.

$$
WILLIS


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