[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N22W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE
GULF N OF 23N GENERATING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER
N MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE S GULF BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AGAIN REIGN ACROSS THE
GULF THUS FURTHER LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE
TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E
OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC OVER
THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC NOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER E TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N70W BRINGING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N69W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC
NEAR 23N62W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY N OF 17N FROM 66W-72W WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
13N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 75W WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO
BEYOND 32N70W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W
ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 45W TO 26N COVERING THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W. DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN
61W-69W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS N
OF 26N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N46W TO 22N55W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 27W TO INLAND OVER
AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE
COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES. AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N42W COVERING THE
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST REMAINING FROM 8N-20N E OF 28W INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
PAW


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