[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
32W-46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF N OF 23N
GENERATING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
US. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE S
GULF BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THUS FURTHER LIMITING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC NOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER E TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N67W BRINGING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 67W. A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR
15N66W ACROSS E PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 22N62W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
W ATLC AND N OF 17N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES E OF 65W. THE SE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER
FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE W
ATLC TO BEYOND 32N73W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
30N63W TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N62W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER
THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 44W TO 26N COVERING THE
SW AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 25W-60W. DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING
SW ALONG 26N45W TO 23N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 23N58W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 25W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC E OF
THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N42W COVERING THE
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS.
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW THE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST REMAINING FROM 8N-20N E OF 28W INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS BUT IS BEGINNING TO DISPERSE.

$$
PAW







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