[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 33W-36W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW FROM A 1026 MB WRN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N70W
IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
20-25 KT E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 50-70 KT
JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO MIAMI FLORIDA
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 24N.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO ADVECT OVER THE GULF FROM MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N70W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 63W-70W.  ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR
9N82W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N69W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT E...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

ATLANTIC...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W.  A TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG 20-30 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER
THE BAHAMAS.  FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 24N50W 21N56W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W.  A 1030 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N24W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SW TO 23N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA W OF 75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 65W-75W.  A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  EXPECT
THE STRONG NE WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS TROUGHING/SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
E ATLC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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