[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N18W 1N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-8W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200/250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 14W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
OVER THE E US ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF W OF
93W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE SE GULF. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
21N79W TO E OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W BRINGING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI/WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 16N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N FROM 72W-78W WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE DRIFTING N ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N62W WSW
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 21N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W ALONG 25N65W
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N
FROM 58W-77W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 25N50W
TO 22N68W. GENERALLY UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST
DIPPING OVER THE NE ATLC FROM 16W-42W N OF 28N. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE REGION. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH IN THE NE/CENTRAL ATLC. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 9W/10W TO OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS
RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY E OF 50W.

$$
PAW


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