[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N21W 2N37W 1N45W EQ50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 1W-6W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-17W AND WITHIN 90 NM N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AMPLIFIED RATHER NARROW MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE SW STATES AND A PORTION OF THE EPAC. STRONG SWLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS ADVECTING A PLUME OF MOISTURE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND NWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...IS SPILLING INTO THE GULF CONTAINED MAINLY N OF
27N. THE SE QUARTER OF THE REGION IS VERY STABLE WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WV IMAGES. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS BEING
PRODUCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE DOWNWARD BRANCH
OF THE RIDGE AND A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE WRN
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL CENTERED OVER NRN ALABAMA. THIS HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS
MODERATE TO FRESH OUT OF THE E IN THE ERN GULF BLOWING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLA AS DEPICTED ON
DOPPLER RADAR. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...MAINLY FAIR AND QUITE WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH RIDGING BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT REMAINING IN
PLACE.

CARIBBEAN...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE
SW BAHAMAS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS JAMAICA
...HISPANIOLA...ERN CUBA AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVIER IN
NATURE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF THE REGION
OUTLINED...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WRN-MOST REGIONS WHERE UPPER CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DRY SINKING AIR. THE TRADE
WINDS HAVE BEEN MODERATE DUE TO THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH N OF
THE REGION WEAKENING THE GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE STRONGER
IN THE NW CARIB TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND AND
SPREAD E AS THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS AND MOVES VERY LITTLE.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN ATLC
WITH A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...S OF
30N BETWEEN 50W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING PRODUCED BY TWO
ELEMENTS. ONE OF THESE IS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E
OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE OTHER
IS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A STATIONARY SFC TROUGH WHICH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 30N60W 25N68W TO HAITI. THIS MESSY WEATHER
...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY HANGS
AROUND AND THE UPPER TROUGH BROADENS AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO
THE E. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE SWATH GRADUALLY BEING
SUPPRESSED TO THE SE NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC MERGES WITH THE SFC TROUGH. W OF
THE AREA OUTLINED...MOSTLY FAIR AND QUITE WINDY WEATHER EXISTS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE N AND W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND
SFC HIGH PRES.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THE BULK OF THIS PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LIES BETWEEN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND UPPER LOWS TO THE N AND VERY BROAD
RIDGING OVER AFRICA EXTENDING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. THIS
HAS ALLOWED THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO BE FAIRLY ZONAL EXCEPT E
OF 25W WHERE IT IS MORE SWLY. STREAKS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS...DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE LARGE AREA OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE W ATLC...IS SPREADING TO ABOUT 30W MAINLY FROM
24N-29N. THE SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 37N40W...PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TRADES S OF
25N. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON IT'S EWD TRACK
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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