[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 1.5N15W 3.5N35W 3N40W AND TO
NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 2N11W TO 1S13W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF ITCZ FROM 23W TO 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W/CENTRAL GULF TO JUST E OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA W
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR SE GULF
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR TO THAT AREA. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
TO AN UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N78W
CONTINUING S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN BRINGING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
AT ALL LEVELS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION
JUST E OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE 27N60W
23N70W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST DIPPING OVER
THE NE ATLC FROM 20W-45W. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DOES NOT ENTER THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. AN
E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER
AFRICA ALONG 8W/9W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY E OF 50W.

$$
LL


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