[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N29W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 7W-11W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO
OVER THE E US ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF W OF
90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE FAR SE GULF. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW
LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NE
FLORIDA SW TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO E OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W BRINGING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS ACROSS
HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO 14N75W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N FROM 72W-78W
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS AS FAR W AS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW
UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ARE
DRIFTING N ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N66W WSW TO THE
S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SPLIT WITH A SMALL PORTION MOVING W FROM
23N71W ACROSS HAITI/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO
21N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
24N FROM 69W-78W. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS IS MOVING E WITHIN
150 NM OF LINE FROM 26N47W TO 23N69W. GENERALLY UPPER WESTERLY
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH JUST DIPPING OVER THE NE ATLC E OF 43W TO OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF 27N. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES AND A
PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS IN W ATLC N OF THE REGION. AN E/W UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA
ALONG 7W/8W TO 35W AND A SECOND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N51W. AS A RESULT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS.

$$
PAW



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