[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W-11W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 13W-17W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N AND E OF 87W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W GULF W OF 90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 94W.  A TROUGH WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  EXPECT THE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN
24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 8N74W.  25-30 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA.  10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 1037
MB HIGH LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS
ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS RIDGE HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
PRODUCE GUSTY ELY WINDS/WIND WAVES. THE FIRST TROUGH IS IN THE
BAHAMAS ALONG 75W FROM 24N-29N.  A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW IS ABOVE
THIS SURFACE TROUGH AT 24N76W.  ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS THE REMNANTS OF A LONG LIVED STATIONARY FRONT...NOW EXTENDING
FROM 28N53W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THIS TROUGH.  MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE
TRADE FLOW S OF A 1029 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL.
INTERRUPTING THE RIDGING IS A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF AN UPPER
LOW SPINNING NEAR 30N22W.  LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150
NM N AND E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net