[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W
FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-19W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N E OF 87W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE W GULF W OF 90W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 94W.  A TROUGH WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  EXPECT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER THE SE
GULF...N YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS CENTERED OVER COLOMBIA
NEAR 4N74W.  25-30 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA.  10-20 KT TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA MOVING W WITH THE
TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC ALONG 28N77W
22N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND E OF TROUGH FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 62W-75W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATION CENTERED NEAR 24N80W.  A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N48W.  STRONGER THAN NORMAL TRADES
ARE NOTED FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W-62W WITH SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 27N23W 20N27W.  AGAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEARBY AT 30N20W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.

$$
FORMOSA



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