[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 4N20W 1N31W EQ45W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME SE CORNER. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH A SFC TROUGH IS GENERATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED PATCHES OF THIS MOISTURE
ARE BEING STEERED WWD BY STIFF ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE FLOWING AROUND THE SW
PERIPHERY OF STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG 97W. THIS RIDGE IS
DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD BETWEEN THE UPPER
FEATURES ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BARELY CLIPPING
THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS
KEEPING CONDITIONS TRANQUIL. LOOKING AHEAD A COUPLE OF
DAYS...NWP MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING E AS THE SHORTWAVE DEEPENS IN THE CARIB. THESE
FEATURES ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES PUSHING S WILL PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER...LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE SHOWERS IN THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...ERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE CONTRIBUTING ELEMENTS ARE A SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLC INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE/MOIST
SWLYS AHEAD OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPLYING INSTABILITY FOR THE CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY JUST N OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE THE CARIB
IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING WWD STEERED BY MODERATE TRADES. THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIB ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN A SIMILAR LOCATION AND
PERHAPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE SFC BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND
AND THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHARPENS OVER THE NW CARIB.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL NE OF BERMUDA. A
COUPLE OF SFC TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS RIDGE HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LEADING TO STRONG ELY WINDS/WIND WAVES. THE
FIRST TROUGH IS IN THE BAHAMAS ALONG 76W FROM 24N-29N. THIS A
REFLECTION OF A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW BETWEEN SFL AND WRN BAHAMAS.
ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. SECOND TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF A LONG LIVED STATIONARY
FRONT...NOW ALONG 29N55W 22N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 22N AND WITHIN 240 NM S OF THERE. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THIS REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
AND THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT.

MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY
MODERATE TRADE FLOW S OF A 1034 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
PORTUGAL. INTERRUPTING THE RIDGING IS A WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF
AN UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR 29N26W. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM N AND E OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS ENE. STRONG SFC
HIGH PRES WILL SEEP SWD INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN ATLC OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS MAINTAINING THE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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