[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N35W EQ45W AND INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-35W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS NOTED FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SE OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES TO RIDGE SW OVER THE GOMEX. THIS IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN...WHICH IN TURN ARE PRODUCING MODERATE 5-8 FT WIND
WAVES/SWELL. HOWEVER...LARGER SHORT PERIOD SEAS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AGAINST THE OPPOSING
CURRENT. ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TRAVERSING THE AREA
WITH THE E/SE FLOW.  ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED IN A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN CANCUN AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. ALOFT...MID TO UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE THE WRN PORTION
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N THROUGH MEX AND TX ALONG 99W. THIS IS
PRODUCING NW UPPER FLOW W OF 88W. A SHORTWAVE MOSTLY MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SFL. MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE SFC WINDS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES S INTO
THE NW CARIB.

CARIBBEAN...
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIB CONTINUES TO BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. SFC TROUGH REMAINS IN THIS AREA...EXTENDING WSW
FROM THE WRN ATLC ALONG 20N70W 19N79W. LIFT AHEAD OF MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 67W-77W. LIGHTNING
DATA ALSO SUPPORTS ISOLATED TSTMS EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE CARIB IS FAIRLY QUIET WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING WWD WITH MODERATE TRADES. UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE ERN CARIB FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LOOK FOR MODERATE
TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE WHILE SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN ERN HONDURAS AND HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WARRANT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THIS
REGION AS WELL...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN WITH
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM GULF.

ATLANTIC...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG 1035 MB HIGH JUST SE OF NOVA SCOTIA. A
COUPLE OF SFC TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS WHICH ARE HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT LEADING TO STRONG ELY WINDS/WIND WAVES. THE
FIRST TROUGH IS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N76W 23N77W. THIS A
REFLECTION OF A SMALL MID LEVEL LOW BETWEEN SFL AND WRN BAHAMAS.
ASSOCIATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
72W-78W. SECOND TROUGH IS THE REMNANTS OF A LONG LIVED
STATIONARY FRONT...NOW ALONG 29N53W 24N60W TO THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N73W. ASIDE FROM THE ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE
CARIB SECTION...CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE MOST
CONCENTRATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 53W-59W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE TRADE FLOW S OF A
1031 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL. THE EXCEPTION
REMAINS THE UPPER LOW NEAR 29N27W THAT HAS A SFC REFLECTION AS A
TROUGH ALONG 31N27W 24N25W. LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA. HI PRES N OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EMBEDDED TROUGHING NE OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM 18N-28N
BETWEEN 53W-75W INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$
WILLIS




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