[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 18W-32W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE NW COAST
OF CUBA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 23N85W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 96W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA... AND W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG
20N70W 18N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF
70W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHOWERS
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
20-30 KT ELY FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA COAST.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
31N50W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE OVER THE W ATLANTIC
ALONG 33N50W 31N60W 31N70W AND IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT.  A STRONG 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 42N19W.  A RELATIVELY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W
PRODUCING STRONGER THAN NORMAL ENE SURFACE FLOW WITH BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-80W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E
OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONTS TO
MERGE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-28N BETWEEN 50W-80W...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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