[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N21W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-45W AND WITHIN
60/75 NM OF 4N FROM 7W-11W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO LOUISIANA. THIS IS
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF
THUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 95W. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC
INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. OTHER THAN A BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. A DEEP
LAYERED LOW/TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY OVER THE W TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE
GULF BUT REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
OVER VENEZUELA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE HISPANIOLA AND THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER HISPANIOLA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MOVER OVER PUERTO
RICO OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 55W-80W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N61W
TO 27N63W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM
53W-61W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT
ALL LEVELS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS
INTO THE REGION N OF 28N FROM 20W-35W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE AREA NEAR 32N31W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A
1038 MB HIGH WNW OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS. ALL THIS IS
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET TONIGHT.

$$
WALLACE




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