[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 4N23W 1N36W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 44W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
21W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND
THE W GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN INLAND OVER TEXAS AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE GULF BUT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...A SQUALL LINE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO
THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
GALVESTON AT 0930 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 93W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE NW ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OVERRUNNING THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. OTHER THAN
PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLOUD
AND SHOWER FREE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE
LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD FREE WITH VIRTUALLY NO
SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION IS FROM OVER HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO
AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE MONA
PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL
MOVER ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM 55W-80W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N59W TO
26N61W THEN CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE MONA PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N FROM
53W-60W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL
LEVELS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC MOSTLY CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION N OF 27N FROM 17W-35W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
N OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC
N OF 15N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WNW OF THE AZORES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR
AT ALL LEVELS. ALL THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
QUIET THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE





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