[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W EQ42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 3S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30-50 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND NEAR THE
NE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MORE OF THE SAME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE AREA GIVING THE GULF WATERS LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING
EXTENDING N FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO MOST OF THE GULF.
PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVES SE TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS. THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND THE
STATE OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS
EVENING WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE TYPICAL
TRADE WIND SHOWERS. A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC IS GENERATING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER N COLOMBIA AND ITS PACIFIC COASTLINE THANKS
TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE BASIN. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE LOW PRES CENTER THAT WAS E OF THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY EVENING
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OCEAN WHILE A NEW SFC LOW HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 27N65W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTS BOTH LOW PRES
SYSTEMS. A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE AREA...AND EXTENDS FROM
29N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW N OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY E OF THE MAIN LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR
35N62W. THE SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE DOMINATING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEEPENING INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
TRACKS RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NE WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL
DISSIPATE. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY AFFECT PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS.

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED W OF THE AZORES CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH
SLIDES EWD TOWARDS THE AZORES. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 22N32W.
DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
AIDING IN THE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER.

$$
GR






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