[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Mar 6 00:08:01 CST 2007


AXNT20 KNHC 060605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE MAR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N10W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1N53W. CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N
BETWEEN 14W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N EAST OF 60W
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS IS SOUTH OF 11N58W 14N45W 20N38W 25N30W BEYOND 22N18W...
UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. IT NOW PASSES THROUGH 33N70W ABOUT 390 NM EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...TO 29N77W ABOUT 200 NM
EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N85W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE WHOLE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W NORTH OF 20N...FROM MEXICO
NORTHWARD BEYOND NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. ANTICYCLONICALLY-
CURVING HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING FROM TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD.
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N93W IN THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS TROUGH
IS REACHING THE NORTHERN COATS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ABOUNDS. THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IS EAST OF 70W AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF
15N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA...MIXED IN WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD FRONT
STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N56W AND IT CONTINUES TO
28N60W 23N70W 20N77W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N77W TO 18N80W
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF 11N83W 15N77W 20N73W.
SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY EAST OF 70W...IT
BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 70W...AND IS NORTHEASTERLY
ELSEWHERE NORTH AND WEST OF 17N80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE LAST
FEW DAYS. IT NOW PASSES THROUGH 33N70W ABOUT 390 NM EAST OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...TO 29N77W ABOUT 200 NM
EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N85W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N64W BEYOND 32N51W TO 34N36W
BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. SOME OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CANARY ISLANDS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO 23N37W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N43W TO 15N48W TO 12N59W.
A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS SOUTH OF 11N58W
14N45W 20N38W 25N30W BEYOND 22N18W... UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A STATIONARY
FRONT IS 31N56W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N56W TO 28N60W
23N70W 20N77W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N77W TO 18N80W AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W
TO 26N71W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 35N15W TO A SECOND 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
31N32W...TO 27N52W TO 24N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE FIRST FRONT.

$$
MT


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