[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052306
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON MAR 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N21W 2N38W 1N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 3.5N FROM 13W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPPING S OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS CONTAINED IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF
22N COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-97W. DRY
AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN REIGNS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPRESSING
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE/STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER LIGHT N TO NE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W JUST W OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 19N82W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AS
A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 16N85W WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND EASTERLY WINDS TO THE E. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER
THE TROPICS IS GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA E OF THE FRONT. CONFLUENT FLOW IS BUILDING BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF
13N W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO NEAR
14N81W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 82W
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 74W WITH THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N56W SW TO ACROSS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHILE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N71W. JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS N OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. A BANK OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST W OF THE PRIMARY FRONT
TO A LINE FROM 27N71W TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. W OF THERE IS COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO 80W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N58W NE TO BEYOND 32N45W COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE REGION S OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-73W
LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF A FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N43W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE
WITH A PEAK NEAR 24W27W. TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO
110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
13N45W ALONG 21N28W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB NEAR 31N31W
TO 25N60W.

$$
WALLACE




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