[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
EAST OF 60W OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS SOUTH OF 11N58W 14N45W 20N38W 26N30W
BEYOND 22N18W... UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. IT NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 26N75W...TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE WHOLE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N100W
BEYOND 33N98W IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING FROM TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD. A 1030 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N93W IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF
MEXICO TROUGH HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ABOUNDS. THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIEST AIR IS SOUTH OF 16N EAST OF 67W. BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...MIXED IN WITH
SPOTTY AREAS OF REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A COLD FRONT STARTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 32N54W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N60W 23N70W 21N74W. A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 21N74W TO 17N80W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS
JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
NORTHWEST OF 20N77W 13N82W. SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
IS EASTERLY EAST OF 70W...IT BECOMES CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N WEST
OF 70W...AND IS NORTHEASTERLY ELSEWHERE NORTH AND WEST OF 17N80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. IT NOW PASSES THROUGH IT NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO
26N75W...TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N64W
BEYOND 32N51W TO 34N36W BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE
AZORES. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY
REACHES THE CANARY ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N37W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N45W
TO 15N51W TO 12N59W. A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
IS SOUTH OF 11N58W 14N45W 20N38W 26N30W BEYOND 22N18W...UNDER
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT
OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS 32N54W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N54W TO 28N60W 23N70W 21N74W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N74W
TO 17N80W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N57W TO 31N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N31W TO 27N48W TO 20N61W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF THE FIRST
FRONT.

$$
MT




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