[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. WIDELY SCATTRED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS WEST OF 2OW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A LINE OF
STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING SE
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A FEW CELLS ARE ALSO MOVING NE
THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF...N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W AND THE W COAST
OF FLORIDA. NLY WINDS 15-25 KT AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
40S AND 50S ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SLY WINDS GENERALLY
15-25 KT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW SPINNING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS OVER S MEXICO AND THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IN THE EPAC. W TO NW UPPER LEVELS WINDS
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING A BAND OF
UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF MAINLY N OF 23N AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A 1005 MB SFC LOW IS . THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A PSN BETWEEN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN BEGIN TO STALL FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL INVADE THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO PUSH THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN...AS SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE JUST OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.
SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. TRADE WIND SHOWERS
CHARACTERIZED BY THEIR SHORT DURATION AND LIGHT INTENSITY ARE
AROUND IN THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC GENERATING LIGHT RAIN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING SE ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ALOFT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST OFFSHORE THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS
THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH DOMINATES THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC IS
SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OUT TO 70W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AHEAD OF THIS IS ALONG 55W. SWLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N48W THEN
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N60W AND THEN A TROUGH IS
ANALYZED THROUGH TO 22N68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND E-CENTRAL
ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N
OF BERMUDAS NEAR 35N64W AND A 1027 MB HIGH SITUATED WEST OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W...WHICH IS PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 40W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE HIGH
NW OF BERMUDAS WILL SLIDE ENE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
GR





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