[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W EQ35W 3S47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 24W-52W...
PRIMARILY EXTENDING TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IS IN TURN CAUSING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET...PARTLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR YESTERDAY'S DEADLY TORNADO OUTBREAK...IS SCREAMING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MAXIMUM CORE SPEEDS UP TO 180 KT REPORTED AT
SHREVEPORT LA AND MARFA TX AT 250 MB. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW STRETCHES FROM NORTH FLORIDA SW
TO 25N90W AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...THEN AS A STATIONARY
FRONT INTO THE FAR SW GULF. CONVECTION HAS REALLY DIED OFF NEAR
THE FRONT WITH NOW ONLY A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM APALACHEE BAY NE ACROSS
GAINESVILLE AND JACKSONVILLE FL TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WEAK
HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND
THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SAT UNTIL A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER
ARIZONA GIVES THE BOUNDARY A SECOND PUSH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY SUN EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...

A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 19N STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SW ACROSS PANAMA. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE STRONGEST AREA BEING JUST N OF ARUBA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SCARCE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS JUST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING NW TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM OFFSHORE
N OF 29N. THIS AREA IS COVERED BY AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE
TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 63W...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS SPILLING EWD FROM FLORIDA TO 70W. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 32N50W TO 20N58W AND THE
DIFFLUENCE E OF IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DEVELOPING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-53W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES
NEAR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LYING ALONG 32N39W 29N50W
27N64W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADES ALONG 51W S OF 20N...MAINLY AS A PRESSURE PERTURBATION
BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLIGHT TURNING IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD.

OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN CONTROL WITH A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR MADEIRA ISLAND AND THE AXIS STRETCHING SW TO
26N46W. A REX BLOCK APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH AN EXTENDED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N43W IN THE
TROPICS NE TO MADEIRA ISLAND THEN EWD INTO MOROCCO...LYING ON
TOP OF A TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ALGERIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
10N30W SW OF THE CAPE VERDES. THIS PATTERN IS OBSTRUCTIVE TO
PROGRESSIVE FLOW SO THINGS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT FOR ANOTHER 24
HRS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
HOWEVER...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING
ACROSS W AFRICA OR THE E ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE SEA BREEZE
OVER LIBERIA AND IVORY COAST.

$$
BERG




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