[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 4N20W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 4S-3N WEST OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT O3Z...IT
EXTENDS ALONG 31N87W 25N93W INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF TO
JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO...WHERE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. A SQUALL LINE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IS AFFECTING
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE STATE OF GEORGIA. A FEW CELLS ARE
ALSO MOVING NE THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF...N OF 28N BETWEEN
85W-90W. NW TO N WINDS 10-20 KT AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S ARE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SLY WINDS GENERALLY 15-25 KT
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW SPINNING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IN THE EPAC. W TO NW UPPER LEVELS
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING A
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF MAINLY N OF 23N AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A PSN
BETWEEN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THEN BEGIN TO STALL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRES WILL INVADE THE W GULF DURING THE WEEKEND
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN...AS SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.
SFC WINDS BEND MORE SLY IN THE NW CARIB IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THE TRADES ARE ADVECTING
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD...MAINLY ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS SEEN OVER THE
CARIB WATERS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE THE TRADES ARE
STRONGEST. ALOFT...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR RESULTING IN STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST
OFFSHORE THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE
PATTERN COVERS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NRN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH DOMINATES THE
FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC IS
SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE CONVECTION IN THE SE U.S. OUT TO
70W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THIS IS ALONG 60W. UPPER
DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES TO 25N60W AND THEN
IS A TROUGH THROUGH TO 22N68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND
E-CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A 1023 MB HIGH PRES
LOCATED NW OF BERMUDAS NEAR 35N67W AND A 1028 MB HIGH SITUATED
WEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W...WHICH IS PRODUCING
ABUNDANT FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE OCEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND E OF 40W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE HIGH NW OF BERMUDAS WILL SLIDE E AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF.

$$
GR




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