[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300501
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N24W 2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88W.
UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO OVER
THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAIN W OF 92W. BROAD
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE SE US JUST CLIPPING THE N GULF THEN EXTENDING INTO THE W
ATLC. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E US AND GULF WITH A
RETURN FLOW SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N95W TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. A RE-INFORCING
SURFACE HIGH WILL ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E
CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW
OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE IT DISSIPATES NEAR E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W ACROSS THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E OF THE PRIMARY FRONT N OF 26N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONT TO 80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N54W NE TO
BEYOND 32N46W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W S ALONG 20N34W
INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 12N39W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT
EXTEND INTO THE TROPICS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N25W SW TO
25N34W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS PARTIALLY BISECTED BY THE ABOVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION
NEAR 37N35W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO BEYOND 32N.

$$
WALLACE




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