[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N25W 2N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
21W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE AXIS ALONG 90W. A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS
TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. AT 21Z...A 1026
MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N90W. A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH/LOW IS
OVER THE FAR WEST GULF AND RUNS FROM 28N96W TO 24N96W. COMPUTER
MODELS FORECAST A SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF
ON TUESDAY. 10-15 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. CHILLY AIR CONTINUES TO
BLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WHILE CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM E
CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 15N87W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
TOMORROW BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. 15 KT
NELY FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT
RAIN ARE N OF THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING BELIZE...
GUATEMALA AND THE W PORTION OF HONDURAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADEWINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BANKED ALONG THE CARIBBEAN
PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH S OF W
CUBA AND EXTEND FROM 23N80W TO 21N90W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W THEN EXTENDS SW ALONG
25N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
CONTINUING OVER E CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N
OF 25N. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 360 NM E
OF FRONT N OF 29N.  A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 31N68W 27N75 CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. ABUNDANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE W ATLC. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR 36N25W TO 23N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND
32N45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W SW TO 15N40W. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA.

$$
GR





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