[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N23W 2N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 26W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 8W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND MEXICO WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST INLAND
OVER SE TEXAS AT 0900 UTC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF
WITH THE AXIS ALONG 83W. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 87W-96W.
BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS FROM
MEXICO ACROSS THE SE US CLIPPING THE N GULF THEN EXTENDING INTO
THE W ATLC. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE E US AND GULF
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA.
A RE-INFORCING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED WITH
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING INTO THE GULF ON THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E
HONDURAS COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 65W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N55W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT HAS
COMPLETE DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N51W NE TO BEYOND
32N44W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N28W S ALONG 20N32W INTO
THE TROPICS NEAR 10N34W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT
EXTEND FAR INTO THE REGION ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N25W S TO
29N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE
REGION NEAR 35N35W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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